Buffett's Methodology

Here we look at how Buffett finds low-priced value by asking himself some questions when he evaluates the relationship between a stock's level of excellence and its price. Keep in mind that these are not the only things he analyzes but rather a brief summary of what Buffett looks for:

1. Has the company consistently performed well?
Sometimes return on equity (ROE) is referred to as "stockholder's return on investment". It reveals the rate at which shareholders are earning income on their shares. Buffett always looks at ROE to see whether or not a company has consistently performed well in comparison to other companies in the same industry. ROE is calculated as follows:
= Net Income

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Shareholder's Equity

Looking at the ROE in just the last year isn't enough. The investor should view the ROE from the past five to 10 years to get a good idea of historical performance.

2. Has the company avoided excess debt?
The debt/equity ratio is another key characteristic Buffett considers carefully. Buffett prefers to see a small amount of debt so that earnings growth is being generated from shareholders' equity as opposed to borrowed money. The debt/equity ratio is calculated as follows:

= Total Liabilities

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Shareholders' Equity

This ratio shows the proportion of equity and debt the company is using to finance its assets, and the higher the ratio, the more debt - rather than equity - is financing the company. A high level of debt compared to equity can result in volatile earnings and large interest expenses. For a more stringent test, investors sometimes use only long-term debt instead of total liabilities in the calculation above.

3. Are profit margins high? Are they increasing?
The profitability of a company depends not only on having a good profit margin but also on consistently increasing this profit margin. This margin is calculated by dividing net income by net sales. To get a good indication of historical profit margins, investors should look back at least five years. A high profit margin indicates the company is executing its business well, but increasing margins means management has been extremely efficient and successful at controlling expenses.

4. How long has the company been public?
Buffett typically considers only companies that have been around for at least 10 years. As a result, most of the technology companies that have had their initial public offerings (IPOs) in the past decade wouldn't get on Buffett's radar (not to mention the fact that Buffett will invest only in a business that he fully understands, and he admittedly does not understand what a lot of today's technology companies actually do). It makes sense that one of Buffet's criteria is longevity: value investing means looking at companies that have stood the test of time but are currently undervalued.

Never underestimate the value of historical performance, which demonstrates the company's ability (or inability) to increase shareholder value. Do keep in mind, however, that the past performance of a stock does not guarantee future performance - the job of the value investor is to determine how well the company can perform as well as it did in the past. Determining this is inherently tricky, but evidently Buffett is very good at it.

5. Do the company's products rely on a commodity?
Initially you might think of this question as a radical approach to narrowing down a company. Buffett, however, sees this question as an important one. He tends to shy away (but not always) from companies whose products are indistinguishable from those of competitors, and those that rely solely on a commodity such as oil and gas. If the company does not offer anything different than another firm within the same industry, Buffett sees little that sets the company apart. Any characteristic that is hard to replicate is what Buffett calls a company's economic moat, or competitive advantage. The wider the moat, the tougher it is for a competitor to gain market share.

6. Is the stock selling at a 25% discount to its real value?
This is the kicker. Finding companies that meet the other five criteria is one thing, but determining whether they are undervalued is the most difficult part of value investing, and Buffett's most important skill. To check this, an investor must determine the intrinsic value of a company by analyzing a number of business fundamentals, including earnings, revenues and assets. And a company's intrinsic value is usually higher (and more complicated) than its liquidation value - what a company would be worth if it were broken up and sold today. The liquidation value doesn't include intangibles such as the value of a brand name, which is not directly stated on the financial statements. (To learn more about Warren Buffett and the holdings his investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway, currently owns check out Coattail Investor.)

Once Buffett determines the intrinsic value of the company as a whole, he compares it to its current market capitalization - the current total worth (price). If his measurement of intrinsic value is at least 25% higher than the company's market capitalization, Buffett sees the company as one that has value. Sounds easy, doesn't it? Well, Buffett's success, however, depends on his unmatched skill in accurately determining this intrinsic value. While we can outline some of his criteria, we have no way of knowing exactly how he gained such precise mastery of calculating value. (To learn more about the value investing strategy of selecting stocks, check out our Guide To Stock-Picking Strategies.)

Buffett's Philosophy

Value investors look for securities with prices that are unjustifiably low based on their intrinsic worth. When discussing stocks, determining intrinsic value can be a bit tricky as there is no universally accepted way to obtain this figure. Most often intrinsic worth is estimated by analyzing a company's fundamentals. Like bargain hunters, value investors seek products that are beneficial and of high quality but underpriced. In other words, the value investor searches for stocks that he or she believes are undervalued by the market. Like the bargain hunter, the value investor tries to find those items that are valuable but not recognized as such by the majority of other buyers.

Warren Buffett takes this value investing approach to another level. Many value investors aren't supporters of the efficient market hypothesis, but they do trust that the market will eventually start to favor those quality stocks that were, for a time, undervalued. Buffett, however, doesn't think in these terms. He isn't concerned with the supply and demand intricacies of the stock market. In fact, he's not really concerned with the activities of the stock market at all. This is the implication this paraphrase of his famous quote : "In the short term the market is a popularity contest; in the long term it is a weighing machine."(see What Is Warren Buffett's Investing Style?)

He chooses stocks solely on the basis of their overall potential as a company - he looks at each as a whole. Holding these stocks as a long-term play, Buffett seeks not capital gain but ownership in quality companies extremely capable of generating earnings. When Buffett invests in a company, he isn't concerned with whether the market will eventually recognize its worth; he is concerned with how well that company can make money as a business. (Interested in what companies Warren Buffett is buying and selling? Check out Coattail Investor, a subscription product tracking some of the best investors in the world.)

Berkshire Hathaway in 1965

Did you know that a $10,000 investment in Berkshire Hathaway in 1965, the year Warren Buffett took control of it, would grow to be worth nearly $30 million by 2005? By comparison, $10,000 in the S&P 500 would have grown to only about $500,000. Whether you like him or not, Buffett's investment strategy is arguably the most successful ever. With a sustained compound return this high for this long, it's no wonder Buffett's legend has swelled to mythical proportions. But how the heck did he do it? In this article, we'll introduce you to some of the most important tenets of Buffett's investment philosophy.

Buffett is a value investor.

His company Berkshire Hathaway is basically a holding company for his investments. Major holdings he has had at some point include Coca-Cola, American Express and Gillette. Critics predicted an end to his success when his conservative investing style meant missing out on the dotcom bull market. Of course, he had the last laugh after the dotcom crash because, once again, Buffett's time tested strategy proved successful

Own Businesses That Drown You In Cash

Charlie Munger told the story of a friend of his that was engaged in the farm equipment business. Each year, after working hard and running his operation, he’d look out in the yard at the equipment that had been traded in or was awaiting sale and lament, “there’s my profit sitting out there.” What you want, Charlie explained, is the type of business that you can take money out in the form of cash dividends without it hurting the competitive position of the enterprise. Warren Buffett then chimed in that you want the type of company that’s going to send you a check every month.

Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway

Warren Buffett is perhaps the greatest investor of all time. His company, Berkshire Hathaway, has grown from over $8 a share when he started acquiring its stock back in the 1960's to over $71,000 today, ballooning Buffett's personal holdings to over $36 billion. These Warren Buffett resources include a biography, articles, timeline, and investing notes.

Who is The Oracle of Omaha

Warren Edward Buffett was born on August 30, 1930. The only boy, he was the second of three children, and displayed an amazing aptitude for both money and business at a very early age. His father was a stock broker turned Congressman.

In 1947, a seventeen year old Warren Buffett graduated from High School. It was never his intention to go to college; he had already made $5,000 delivering newspapers (this is equal to $42,610.81 in 2000). His father had other plans, and urged his son to attend the Wharton Business School at the University of Pennsylvania. Buffett stayed two years, complaining that he knew more than his professors. When Howard was defeated in the 1948 Congressional race, Warren returned home to Omaha and transferred to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Working full-time, he managed to graduate in only three years.

Buffett married Susan Thompson in 1952. They had three children, Susie, Howard, and Peter. The couple began living separately in 1977, though they remained married until her death in July 2004. His daughter Susie lives in Omaha and does charitable work through the Susan A. Buffett Foundation and as a national board member of Girls, Inc. On his 76th birthday Buffett married his longtime companion, Astrid Menks, who had lived with him since his wife's departure

Wm. Wrigley Jr. Co.(WWY)

Berkshire’s recent play for U.S. chewing gum icon Wm. Wrigley Jr. Co. (WWY) underscores that willingess to invest in the “right” opportunity, regardless of the general economic outlook. Just last month - against a backdrop of recessionary and inflationary fears, a weak dollar, soaring energy prices, and a spiraling credit crunch - Berkshire joined forces with closely held Mars Inc. and agreed to provide $4.4 billion in financing for the $23 billion deal. In addition to providing the debt financing, Berkshire will make a minority investment in Wrigley, valued at about $2.1 billion. It’s believed that Buffett is getting a discount on the Wrigley stake.

Berkshire Hathaway

Warren Buffett is the Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, a company he took over during the 1960s, when it was a troubled, northeast American textile company. Over the years, he transformed the company by using its cash flows to purchase other attractive investments. In the 1970s, Buffett merged Berkshire with Charlie Munger’s investment holding company, Blue Chip Stamps, to form what today is one of the world’s largest holding companies. Each year, as Chairman of the Board (and its largest shareholder), Buffett writes a letter to his fellow shareholders

Buffettology

Is the company in an industry of good economics, i.e., not an industry competing on price points. Does the company have a consumer monopoly or brand name that commands loyalty? Can any company with an abundance of resources compete successfully with the company?
Are the earnings on an upward trend with good and consistent margins?
Is the debt-to-equity ratio low or is the earnings-to-debt ratio high, i.e. can the company repay debt in few years from its earnings?
Is ROE consistent over its history and high compared to the industry average? Is it more than 12%? Or does the company have high and consistent Return on Total Capital?
Does the company retain earnings for growth?
The business should not have high maintenance cost of operations, low capital expenditure or investment cash outflow. This is not the same as investing to expand capacity.
Does the company re-invest earnings in good business opportunities? Does the Management have a good track record of profiting on these investments?
Is the company free to adjust prices for inflation?

Buffett's Investment Record

Buffett's investment record at Berkshire is based on the common stock purchases far more than any special deals – although Berkshire has made a lot of them. If you compare Berkshire's record on special deals with its record on common stock purchases in the market, you'll see that Buffett's record is not the result of benefits resulting from such special deals – because, quite frankly, he's accomplished a lot more at Berkshire in the open market than in negotiated transactions with public companies. In fact, his "special deals" record in the 80s in this regard was actually quite poor when compared to his common stock purchases.